2021 Fantasy Draft Player Profiles: CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb had a great rookie season, despite only having QB Dak Prescott for five weeks of the season. There were ups and downs with Andy Dalton and the other QBs Dallas had to employ, but with a healthy Prescott, can he see the consistency to become a top fantasy WR? If so...CeeDee Lamb is a league winner based on his current draft value. Let's break it down.

The Cowboys in 2020 had a rough start to the season. They were putting together some pretty stellar fantasy numbers as a whole, but managed two close wins and three close losses through the five weeks they had Prescott. Lamb was a rookie, and began his NFL career with 6, 9, and 7 targets from Prescott respectively. That was enough for double-digit fantasy points, and that's pretty solid for a guy in his first NFL appearances. He came into his own weeks 4 and 5, but then Prescott was hurt and the season changed for the Cowboys. Even with a severe drop in arm talent, Lamb made the most of it and finished the season with 74 catches on 111 targets, adding 10 rushing attempts for 82 yards and TD. No matter how you look at it, Lamb had a great rookie season that only leaves the question: what could he have done with a healthy Prescott for 16 games? If you look below, you will see the week-by-week breakdown of Lamb's 2020 stats.

Since we don't have a crystal ball, we can only project what we think will happen, based on the production we saw last year and the situation we find our guy in this year. Lamb has competition from veteran Amari Cooper, young TE Blake Jarwin, speedy slot receiver Michael Gallup (CSU Ram), and Zeke Elliott for touches. If last year is any indication however, Lamb has the skills to break coverage and get open, especially against defenses that have to worry about the other weapons we just mentioned. In 2020, Lamb commanded a 17% target share through 16 games. That's pretty healthy for a rookie wideout. We also have to factor in that second-year receivers tend to have breakout seasons (if healthy of course) at a fairly high rate, especially when they have an elite QB. There are countless examples. It's rare for a receiver on a terrible team to have the ability to finish the season as the overall WR1. Lamb is the WR2 on an explosive team, which immediately gives him WR1 upside, but he is being drafted as if his 2020 season is the ceiling for the young receiver and not the floor. As much as I like Amari Cooper, there is no doubt in my mind CeeDee Lamb will finish the year as the WR1 on the Cowboys.

Since his days in college at Oklahoma with Baker Mayfield, CeeDee Lamb has drawn comparisons to elite receiver DeAndre Hopkins. At 6'2" and 200lbs, the lanky wideout has the length to go after 50/50 balls but the agility to run sweeps and slot routes underneath just the same. Basically, he can do what Pro-Bowl teammate Cooper can do, but better, and he can do what speedy slot Gallup can do, but better. He has a year of NFL experience under his belt, and produced well above his expected level despite having less-than-stellar QB play. Currently, he is ranked as the WR15, and his overall ADP is 34, meaning he is available in the third round in most PPR drafts. I have him ranked as my WR6, (yes, WR6...for my full WR rankings click here) meaning getting him late in the third round is absolutely bonkers to me. That means that no matter what draft position you have, you can get Lamb with your third pick: you can draft a stud RB in the first round, a stud WR in the second, and get Lamb as your WR2 in the third. Or go RB/RB knowing you have a WR1 available in the third. He is also perfect for Glass-RB/Zero-RB Strategies, where you take one stud RB then assault the WR position with talent til the later rounds. He has a high-end WR1 ceiling with low-end WR2 draft value. You just can't go wrong taking Lamb at that ADP, considering the value of the guys around him are of the tier where things begin to fall off. DeAndre Swift, Miles Sanders, Julio Jones, and Mike Evans (ugh) are your options in that range.

In Summary:

CeeDee Lamb is a no-brainer choice if he stays at his current ADP of third round. I have Lamb projected with a 96/1236/11 season, with 18 rushes for 112 yards and a touchdown on top. In full PPR scoring formats, that's 302.8 fantasy points, not enough to truly compete for the season WR1, but enough to put him top 10 and having a weekly scoring average of 18.9 points. Those are DeAndre Hopkins numbers, and I expect to see their names near each other on the 2021 final rankings when it's all said and done. If his current ADP of 34 rises as we watch the Cowboys training camp on Hard Knocks in the coming weeks, I'm still comfortable taking Lamb in the mid second round after the true elite RBs and WRs are off the board, but given the presence of Cooper, his draft value should keep him in the region to be a true steal of the draft.