Week 2 of preseason is in the books, and we may have left it with more questions than answers.
When evaluating preseason, we have to be specific about what we are looking for. In position battles it’s pretty straightforward, though we do take into account which levels of defense he was playing against. For rookies, we are merely looking for an insight into whether they can play at the next level. And for team evaluations, preseason mainly shows us what kind of depth the team has. While wins and losses don't matter as much, if you see a 35-0 score, that means one team was extensively better than the other in most aspects, at all levels. You see team cohesion in the preseason more on the defensive side, as the unit is less reliant on one player (QB) for success. If you see a team's second and third string defense holding their own or wrecking another team's second or third team, that defense probably has the depth to compete once they lose some starters to injury.
1. Travis Ettienne To Miss 2021 Season
After only three plays on Monday night, rookie running back Travis Ettienne suffered a Lisfrac strain in his foot, a painful injury that generally requires surgery to heal fully. Ettienne was put on IR Tuesday, effectively ending the young back's season. This is the absolute worst nightmare for a team that spent the 26th overall pick on a RB when they had serious needs on the offensive line, and now the investment is put on hold for a year. New head coach Urban Meyer raised some eyebrows by going RB with Jag's second pick in the first round, and the fact that Ettienne was Lawrence's college teammate gave the impression that the coaching staff allowed Lawrence to have some (perhaps misguided) say in the selection. Meanwhile, UDFA breakout star James Robinson is poised to back up his insane rookie campaign as the lead back once again in Jacksonville, with veteran Carlos Hyde on board to help with the pure rushing duties. Robinson is a talented pass catcher, but lacks the true versatility of Ettienne that Meyer wants for his system built around the strengths of Trevor Lawrence rather than the traditional ground and pound NFL blueprint that Robinson excelled in last year.
2. Jameis Winston Wins The Battle?
Monday night, it became quickly clear which Saints QB was the front runner from a pure passing standpoint. In his first NFL start since 2019, Winston posted a 9/10, 123 yards and 2 touchdowns (both to electric second-year wideout Marquez Calloway) stat line before handing the reigns over to Taysom Hill. Hill struggled for much of his time on the field, smothered by the Jacksonville defense as the Jaguars clawed their way back into the game. Winston meanwhile looked stellar, leading New Orleans to the end zone on each of the first two drives. There was a clear connection between Winston and Calloway, who burned the Jags high-priced free agent corner Shaq Griffin for one of his two field-stretching scores. Winston also looked good under pressure, moving around in the pocket while still progressing through his reads and avoiding panic-based decisions.
The Jaguars have a good run defense, but the Saints were not able to get their ground game going at all, and if that occurs in the regular season Winston could be asked to throw the ball a lot. Last week for season projections, I assumed Winston would start and charted him at 609 pass attempts in 16 games. For fantasy, this could be good for pass catchers like Alvin Kamara, the young Calloway (who might usurp Tre'Quan Smith on draft boards after Monday's game), and Michael Thomas when he makes his return to the SuperDome sometime in October.
3. The Game Speeds Up For Fields
Bears rookie QB Justin Fields was topping headlines after his preseason debut where he quite frankly, looked pretty damn good. They did keep cutting off his long-run clip right before he fumbled the ball, which I found amusing, but hey. The NFL is promoting its rookies. Veteran Andy Dalton got the start and posted a very Dalton-esque stat line of 11/17, 146 yards and 1 touchdown...with 1 interception through a full first half of play. A lot of the Chicago staters weren't playing, so Dalton didn't truly get the weapons and protection he will see in the regular season, but overall it was an Andy Dalton day. Fields came in for the second half, and we saw the reasons Dalton will get the week one job rear their ugly head again: Fields is raw. Ohio State ran a college offense where the QB basically just rattled off the play call to the team. Now, the play calls contain detailed information for each level of the offense, and if any part is not understood or relayed correctly...disaster ensues. Case in point...Fields losing his helmet to Buffalo's Andre Smith as the linebacker came in unblocked and Fields didn't even see him.
Head coach Matt Nagy has said all along that Dalton will be the starter for the Bears week 1, and while Dalton has been mostly mundane and Fields mostly exciting, there isn't anything the rookie can do in his start against Tennessee that should sway the staff's mind. That being said, Fields has certainly shown enough to prove he was worthy of the first round draft selection, and the fact that he will see regular-season starts as soon as week 4 is becoming inevitable.
Other Bears News: WR Allen Robinson II didn't play in the second preseason game, nor did fellow starter Darnell Mooney. Free Agent Marquise Goodwin got the start, and while he did not record a catch, reports from Bears camp indicate they want him to be the WR3 on the team. Goodwin's speed could make him a fantasy asset in deeper leagues, but he has missed 37 of 112 games (33%) in his 7 year career so keep an eye on the health of the veteran. Damien Williams got the start at RB, and managed just 1.6 YPC on 5 carries. Still no threat to David Montgomery and Tariq Cohen unless either were to miss time to injury.
4. Did Bridgewater Lock It Up?
In 2020 Drew Lock was not good enough to win games consistently. The young gunslinger has the arm talent to blow the lid off the NFL, but his fundamentals and decision-making are a work in progress. As a result, head coach Vic Fangio brought in a very Fangio-type guy in Teddy Bridgewater to shore up the position and ultimately create some competition for Lock. The result has been a fairly good problem to have: both QBs have played really well, and the Broncos have still not yet named a starter. In the first preseason game against Minnesota, Lock looked like the picture of a modern QB, mobile and accurate, and making plays down the field ala Herbert and Mahomes. Bridgewater also played well during his time in that game, and when he got his start over the weekend against Seattle, he backed it up with a smooth 9/11, 105 yards and a touchdown stat line in the two drives he played (both ended with scores). After two games, Teddy is 16/19, 179 yards and 2 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. That's a QBR of 141.0. Lock meanwhile did not enjoy the same success in Saturday's game against Seattle, with some offensive line breakdowns and questionable decisions resulting in a largely forgettable day. Regardless, Lock has put up a 14/21, 231 yards and 2 touchdowns with 0 interceptions line that is good enough for a QBR of 135.2.
Basically, the coaching staff has to make a choice based on projecting which QB is most likely to prove that they can sustain their recent levels of production the best. It seems clear that Fangio wants to start Bridgewater, or else he would have already announced Lock as the guy. Both QBs will play this weekend in the Broncos final preseason game, though it is unclear for how long, or if the results will factor into the staff's choice for the week 1 starter.
In Summary: I think the defensive mind of Vic Fangio sees a Broncos defense that is ready to make a playoff run if their offense can just avoid making game-wrecking mistakes, i.e. turnovers. Whether that's true or not, that's how he sees it. I believe Fangio wants Bridgewater to start the season because Teddy presents the least amount of risk if both are performing at similar levels. I also believe offensive coordinator Pat Shurmer thinks that's a mistake: while Bridgewater might be the safe option, he simply doesn't have the athleticism anymore to truly take the Broncos offense to the next level. Lock may not have that ability either, but he certainly has more of the skill set required than Teddy, and I believe the reason a starter has not been announced yet is the dissension in the ranks between the head coach and the offensive coordinator. Hopefully for the sake of the fans and the team, they make the announcement before week's end.
5. Zach Wilson Looks Good...Again
I wanted to finish this list with some good news, and surprisingly it has to do with Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson. Very low expectations have been set for Wilson, mainly due to the lack of success Jets rookies have seen over the last few decades. New York completely overhauled its coaching staff and much of its offense in the offseason, so perhaps the association with Jets and failure needs to be adjusted. Wilson has effectively surprised analysts in his first two preseason games, posting a 15/20, 191 yards and 2 touchdowns stat line with no interceptions. Free agent WR Corey Davis has emerged as the target favorite, and while Tevin Coleman has been rolling with starters, rookie RB Michael Carter has been successful on the ground with the opportunities given. We can't forget the Jets have been slowly building one of the best young offensive lines in the NFL, and that creates time in the pocket and also opens running lanes. Rookie wideout Elijiah Moore out of Ole Miss has yet to take the field, and with a field of weapons including Davis, Keeland Cole Sr, Jamison Crowder, Coleman, Carter, and Tyler Kroft, Wilson could be set up to have a mjuch better 2021 campaign than we have been giving him credit for.
But it is still the Jets so I'm not holding my breath.