Super Bowl Sleepers: Tennessee Titans

Historically teams make moves in an offseason that are a precursor to their eventual super bowl win. Let's take a look at the Tennessee Titans and why they are a true Super Bowl contender for 2021.

The Team:

One general theme for championship teams is consistent success in the seasons leading up to their victory. The Titans went 9-7 for four straight years, sometimes getting a wild card and sometimes not, but increased their record to 11-5 last year, winning the division for the first time since 2008 and securing their second consecutive playoff berth. The Titans have one of the strongest rushing attacks in the league behind Derrick Henry, who became the eighth person in history to rush for 2000 yards in a season in 2020. After acquiring quarterback Ryan Tannehill in 2019, they solidified a position they had struggled with for years behind Marcus Mariota, and drafting superstar AJ Brown suddenly gave the Titans the beginnings of a passing attack to compliment the run game.

Despite having one of the lower pass/run ratios in the NFL, the Titans with Tannehill are one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league; when they pass, it works, and with close to a 5:1 TD/INT ratio. The glaring weakness with Tennessee is the defense. The Titans were middle of the pack against the rush in 2020, but against the pass they were bottom 5 in all meaningful categories. A lot of this is because of the way the Titans win games: they generally take an early lead and preserve it, forcing the other team to throw the ball in order to get the lead back. This puts a lot of pressure on the Tennessee pass rushers and defensive backs, especially late in games when players get tired and depth becomes scarce. Even at 11-5, they were allowing averages close to 400 yards and 30 points to opposing offenses per game. These inadequacies were especially vivid in the playoffs, losing in the wildcard round to Baltimore. The one bright aspect from the defense was takeaways, where they had the NFL-best +11 turnover differential in 2020.

The Moves:

The Titans did a few things in the offseason that allude to a real championship shot. The splashiest move was acquiring future Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Julio Jones from the Atlanta Falcons. Jones may be closer to the end of his career than his heyday, but before Jones' season was cut short he managed to put up 3 130+ yard games, and was on track to finish with almost 1400 yards in a season where fellow wideout Calvin Ridley was being utilized just as much as the veteran.

Put Jones on the explosive rush-heavy Tennessee offense, and you get the magical missing piece: the HOF-bound veteran, on his quest for a Super Bowl victory, joins the proven offense that needs a skilled presence on the outside to draw coverage away from the young stud receiver Brown. Jones also fills a red-zone target gap left by the exit of tight end Jonnu Smith. Derrick Henry most likely won't rush for 2000 yards again, but he likely won't need to with Brown taking the leap into the elite with Jones across from him. The Titans also drafted NDSU offensive tackle Dillon Radunz (Trey Lance's OT) in the second round, adding a future star to the line to protect Tannehill and road-grade for Henry.

Perhaps the move that really puts the Titans into the big game, however, was the signing of free agent LB Bud Dupree from Pittsburgh. Dupree is a true hybrid outside linebacker, capable of covering the elite tight ends of the NFL and also bull rushing tackles and sacking mobile quarterbacks. His most valuable skill is one that we see from the true greats: Dupree is always around the ball, especially in the run game. This versatility allows other players on the Tennessee defense to focus on their assignments while Dupree adapts to the play as it unfolds, he isn't stuck into any given role. Another defensive addition was Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley, who fell in the draft due to injury concerns, but if healthy the rookie could be the biggest steal of the draft.

The addition of two key free agents and two high-ceiling rookies offensively and defensively addresses the weaknesses that held the Titans back in 2020. If the team stayed the exact same, I think they would easily finish with 11 wins, but with their team improvement and the general condition of the division around them I believe they win the division and are one of the AFC's top seeded playoff teams with 12 or more victories. But then comes the playoffs. The Titans historically beat the teams they are supposed to, and lose to the teams they are supposed to. They will be overmatched on paper once they face the Bills or the Chiefs, but that's when the free agent additions have the potential to give them that boost to stun a season-long favorite and take their place in Super Bowl history.